When mankind finally comes to understand the principles of intelligence and how they can be embodied in machines, it will be the most important discovery of our age, perhaps of any age. In recent years, with progress in deep learning and other areas, this great scientific prize has begun to appear almost within reach. The consequences, benefits, and dangers for humanity have become popular topics in the press, at public policy meetings, and at scientific meetings. Is it all hyperbole and fear mongering, or are there genuine scientific advances underlying the current excitement? In this talk, I try to provide some perspective, informed and undoubtedly biased by my 38 years of research in AI. I seek to contribute to the conversation in two ways: 1) by seeing current developments as part of the longest trend in AI---towards cheaper computation and thus a greater role for search, learning, and all things scalable, and 2) by sketching one possible path to AI, based on prediction and reinforcement learning.